|
10/1991
Japan
|
Pick-up of growth (due to interest rate drop)
|
Worst recession since Great Depression, bank
closures
|
Worst recession since Great Depression, bank
closures
|
|
04/1994
Japan
|
Recovery in 1995
|
Downturn in 1994/95
|
Downturn in 1994/95
|
|
04/1995
Japan
|
1% real GDP growth
|
3.8% real GDP growth in FY96
|
4.4% real GDP growth in FY96
|
|
05/1995
US/Japan
|
¥90/$ in FY96
|
¥113/$ on average in FY96
|
¥113/$ on average in FY96
|
|
10/1996
Asia
|
Continuation of all dollar pegs
|
Break of all dollar pegs in Asia
|
Break of all, except HK peg
|
|
01/1997
US/Japan
|
First ¥110/$, then ¥130/$
|
¥119/$ on average in FY97
|
¥122/$ on average in FY97
|
|
02/1997
USA
|
Stock market crash
|
Dow Jones Index average to reach 10,000 by
end of 1998
|
Dow Jones Index average hit 10,000 on 16 March
1999
|
|
07/1997
Asia
|
Asia will recover quickly
|
Asian crisis will turn into prolonged slump
|
Asian crisis turned into prolonged slump
|
|
08/1998
Japan
|
Extremely low long-term rates to continue
|
Sharp rise of long-term interest rates by
end of 1998
|
Sharp rise of long-term interest rates by
end of 1998
|
|
08/1998
Japan
|
"Sell Japanese stocks, especially OTC"
|
"Buy Nikkei and OTC stock market"
|
Since October 1998: OTC up by more than 100%,
Nikkei up by 30%
|
|
08/1998
US/Japan
|
Yen to fall to ¥150/$
|
Yen to rise from ¥140/$ range to ¥115/$
range
|
Yen rose from ¥140/$ range to ¥112/$
|
|
09/1998
World
|
Gold price to recover
|
Gold price to keep falling
|
Gold price hits 20 year low in June 99, stays
weak
|
|
02/1999
Europe
|
Euro to strengthen
|
Euro to keep falling
|
Euro keeps falling
|
|
03/1999
Asia
|
Stocks peaking out
|
Korea, Singapore stock indices to rise
|
New post-crisis highs of stock indices
|
|
06/1999
Europe
|
Economy, stocks weak
|
German stock market to rise significantly
|
New record high of DAX index in January 2000
|
|
07/1999
Japan
|
Nikkei to remain subdued in 1999
|
Nikkei 225 to rise to ¥22,000 in Q1CY00,
but then fall below ¥17,000 by Q3CY00
|
Nikkei rises to ¥20,800 in Q1CY00, then
falls below ¥17,000 (on old definition) in Q3CY00
|
|
09/1999
US/Japan
|
Yen to remain strong
|
Yen to weaken from late FY99 towards ¥115/$
|
Yen weakens sharply in CY2000
|
|
09/2000
Europe
|
No euro recovery in sight
|
Euro to rise sharply against yen and dollar
|
Euro bottoms in October 2000 and rises sharply
against yen and dollar
|
